André Månberger is an Associate Professor in Environmental and Energy Systems Studies at Lund University and Director of Doctoral Studies in Technology and Society. His research focuses on critical raw material supply chains, energy security, and the geopolitics of low-carbon transitions. He leads the interdisciplinary research programme Mistra Mineral Governance (https://www.mistramineralgovernance.se/).
Securing European lithium: Assessing future demand, primary supply, trade and the role of recycling
Adoption of electric vehicles and battery stationary storage is increasing lithium demand. The EU is import-dependent and has formulated supply-security targets for self-sufficiency (10% by 2030) and recycled content (6% by 2031 and 12% by 2036). This study critically assesses these targets by developing scenarios for lithium supply, demand, and recycling, and shows that recycled batteries make only a modest contribution to self-sufficiency, falling short of policymakers’ targets. The finding is sensitive to assumed battery lifetimes. The EU lithium projects designated as strategic are more than sufficient to meet the 2030 self-sufficiency target, assuming the projects commence as announced. In addition, future supply from European companies’ investments in other continents is estimated to exceed domestic output. The findings indicate that resource efficiency and substitution are key to achieving high levels of self-sufficiency, while recycling has a limited role in the short term.
